Thu, Dec 16, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Los Angeles Kings 4, St. Louis Blues 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 19 | 38 | 012 | 429 |
| STL | 112 | 312 | 27 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:59LAKRyan SmythPPAssists: Jack Johnson, Dustin Brown · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 18:45STLJay McClementAssists: Brad Winchester, B.J. Crombeen · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 2:00LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Jack Johnson · Slap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 5:07STLVladimir SobotkaAssists: David Backes, Carlo Colaiacovo · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 9:46STLBrad WinchesterPPAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo, Vladimir Sobotka · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 15:07STLEric BrewerAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, David Backes · Slap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P2 15:53LAKWayne SimmondsAssists: Kyle Clifford, Michal Handzus · Snap, 0.14 xG3–4
- P2 17:20LAKDustin BrownAssists: Rob Scuderi, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–4
- P3 17:07STLAlexander SteenGWGAssists: Jay McClement, B.J. Crombeen · Slap, 0.06 xG4–5
- P3 19:01STLDavid BackesENAssists: Brad Boyes, Carlo Colaiacovo · Wrist, 0.56 xG4–6
Penalties (18)
- P1 11:40LAKJustin Williams: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 14:58STLDave Scatchard: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:00STLNikita Nikitin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 19:35LAKJustin Williams: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:38STLVladimir Sobotka: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:12STLIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P2 8:52LAKJack Johnson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:02LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:02STLTyson Strachan: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:23STLMatt D'Agostini: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:41STLBrad Boyes: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:48LAKKyle Clifford: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:51LAKJack Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:51LAKJack Johnson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:51LAKJustin Williams: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:51LAKJustin Williams: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:51STLTyson Strachan: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:51STLTyson Strachan: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Handzus
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestHandzus – Simmonds – Clifford5:22
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Smyth – Stoll – Moller5:48
xG 0.11–0.08 (59%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Smyth – Stoll – Westgarth3:43
xG 0.04–0.03 (57%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Lewis – Westgarth – Clifford2:45
xG 0.02–0.07 (22%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDrewiske – Doughty5:14
xG 0.38–0.14 (73%)attempts 5–4goals 1–2
- Scuderi – Johnson7:27
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Doughty7:29
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Backes – Sobotka10:48
xG 0.50–0.16 (75%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Scatchard – Janssen – Porter3:10
xG 0.07–0.02 (78%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Winchester – Crombeen – Berglund5:40
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- McClement – Steen – D'Agostini7:21
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Cole12:57
xG 0.83–0.64 (56%)attempts 16–10goals 2–1
- Jackman – Colaiacovo14:43
xG 0.36–0.37 (50%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Strachan – Nikitin10:07
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).