Thu, Dec 16, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Ottawa Senators 3, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 06 | 212 | 17 | 325 |
| MIN | 111 | 06 | 07 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:36MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Martin Havlat · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 6:11OTTDaniel AlfredssonPPAssists: Mike Fisher, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 11:21OTTNick FolignoPPGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Sergei Gonchar · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 19:23OTTChris KellyENAssists: Erik Karlsson, Daniel Alfredsson · Backhand, 0.67 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:39OTTSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:59OTTJarkko Ruutu: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:41OTTBrian Lee: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:18MINBrent Burns: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:12MINKyle Brodziak: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKovalev – Spezza – Michalek14:33
xG 0.52–0.30 (64%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly10:05
xG 0.27–0.21 (56%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Fisher – Foligno12:26
xG 0.35–0.39 (47%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Regin – Shannon – Winchester7:58
xG 0.08–0.18 (31%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Phillips – Karlsson15:10
xG 0.39–0.35 (53%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Karlsson2:04
xG 0.02–0.02 (46%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Campoli – Lee13:57
xG 0.31–0.35 (46%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHavlat – Bouchard – Brodziak10:53
xG 0.42–0.23 (65%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Havlat – Bouchard – O'Sullivan2:02
xG 0.02–0.01 (63%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kobasew – O'Sullivan – Staubitz2:32
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Brunette – Miettinen – Koivu10:59
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarker – Spurgeon9:51
xG 0.36–0.29 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Zanon – Zidlicky17:39
xG 0.17–0.28 (39%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
- Schultz – Burns15:42
xG 0.47–0.57 (45%)attempts 12–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).