Thu, Dec 16, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 223 | 06 | 111 | 340 |
| EDM | 313 | 314 | 09 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:58EDMLinus OmarkAssists: Ryan Whitney · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–1
- P1 5:32CBJKristian HuseliusAssists: Rostislav Klesla, R.J. Umberger · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 11:25EDMJordan EberleAssists: Taylor Hall, Sam Gagner · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 16:19CBJKristian HuseliusPPAssists: R.J. Umberger, Rick Nash · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P1 19:29EDMDustin PennerPPAssists: Linus Omark, Magnus Paajarvi · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
- P2 3:32EDMJordan EberleGWGAssists: Ryan Whitney, Taylor Hall · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–4
- P2 14:23EDMMagnus PaajarviAssists: Ryan O'Marra, Linus Omark · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–5
- P2 15:12EDMSam GagnerAssists: Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–6
- P3 18:53CBJKristian HuseliusAssists: Antoine Vermette · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:16EDMZack Stortini: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:16CBJTom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:56EDMAndrew Cogliano: Holding2 min
- P1 15:25EDMJason Strudwick: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:20CBJDerick Brassard: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:09CBJMike Commodore: Interference2 min
- P2 14:59CBJJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:59EDMTheo Peckham: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:07EDMRyan O'Marra: Boarding2 min
- P3 8:40CBJRostislav Klesla: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:29CBJKristian Huselius: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against O'Marra
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHuselius – Vermette – Umberger8:12
xG 0.91–0.37 (71%)attempts 20–5goals 2–2
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek12:04
xG 1.07–0.54 (66%)attempts 20–9goals 0–1
- Murray – Boll – Sestito6:34
xG 0.15–0.18 (46%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Moreau – Clark – Pahlsson9:48
xG 0.42–0.79 (35%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCommodore – Russell10:29
xG 0.52–0.08 (87%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Klesla – Methot10:46
xG 0.67–0.49 (58%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Tyutin – Hejda11:14
xG 0.67–0.72 (48%)attempts 21–8goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestO'Marra – Omark – Paajarvi8:28
xG 0.74–0.45 (62%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Gagner – Eberle – Hall13:03
xG 0.85–0.82 (51%)attempts 13–18goals 2–0
- Penner – Brule – Cogliano10:56
xG 0.32–0.52 (39%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Fraser – Stortini – Jones5:00
xG 0.18–0.40 (31%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStrudwick – Whitney12:22
xG 1.13–0.76 (60%)attempts 14–16goals 3–0
- Foster – Smid12:16
xG 0.55–0.78 (41%)attempts 14–22goals 0–1
- Gilbert – Peckham14:24
xG 0.32–0.81 (28%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).