Fri, Dec 17, 2010·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Buffalo Sabres 2, Florida Panthers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 014 | 112 | 117 | 243 |
| FLA | 410 | 17 | 19 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:40FLABryan McCabeAssists: Shawn Matthias, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 8:23FLAMarty ReasonerAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 14:08FLAMarty ReasonerGWGAssists: Jason Garrison · Snap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P1 16:28FLADavid BoothPPAssists: Michael Frolik, Shawn Matthias · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–4
- P2 18:58FLAMichael FrolikAssists: Stephen Weiss, Chris Higgins · Snap, 0.09 xG0–5
- P2 19:41BUFDerek RoyAssists: Tyler Myers, Patrick Lalime · Slap, 0.02 xG1–5
- P3 0:13FLAStephen WeissSHAssists: Chris Higgins · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–6
- P3 1:41BUFTim ConnollyPPAssists: Jochen Hecht, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–6
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:37FLABryan Allen: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:00FLADarcy Hordichuk: Holding2 min
- P1 15:20BUFPaul Gaustad: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:28BUFJordan Leopold: Holding2 min
- P1 0:00BUFRob Niedermayer: Interference2 min
- P2 4:43BUFRob Niedermayer: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:18FLADennis Wideman: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:18BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:52FLAMarty Reasoner: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:20BUFPatrick Kaleta: Charging2 min
- P3 3:20FLAMarty Reasoner: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:20BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:00FLADarcy Hordichuk: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:39FLABryan Allen: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Santorelli won the faceoff against Connolly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Connolly – Kaleta – Ennis5:58
xG 0.12–0.14 (46%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Grier – Gaustad – McCormick5:10
xG 0.25–0.38 (40%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Niedermayer – Hecht – Pominville5:20
xG 0.13–0.38 (25%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Roy – Vanek – Stafford9:06
xG 0.37–1.00 (27%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Myers11:07
xG 0.53–0.41 (56%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Montador – Butler4:44
xG 0.14–0.16 (46%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Leopold – Montador7:38
xG 0.19–0.30 (39%)attempts 8–5goals 0–3
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReasoner – Matthias – Dadonov7:13
xG 0.83–0.11 (88%)attempts 8–6goals 3–0
- Weiss – Higgins – Frolik6:52
xG 0.75–0.56 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Reinprecht – Booth – Thomas4:47
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hordichuk – Bernier – Santorelli2:29
xG 0.01–0.01 (56%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Garrison9:30
xG 1.10–0.19 (85%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Allen – Weaver2:12
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- McCabe – Kulikov9:16
xG 0.30–0.27 (52%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).