Fri, Dec 17, 2010·United Center, Chicago
Detroit Red Wings 1, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 115 | 08 | 07 | 130 |
| CHI | 214 | 111 | 16 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:04CHIPatrick SharpPPAssists: Brent Seabrook, Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 4:32CHIBryan BickellGWGAssists: Fernando Pisani, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 4:59DETPatrick EavesAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Brian Rafalski · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 11:22CHITomas KopeckyAssists: Brian Campbell, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 18:56CHITomas KopeckyENAssists: Jack Skille, Jake Dowell · Wrist, 0.65 xG1–4
Penalties (1)
- P1 0:47DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestEaves – Miller – Abdelkader4:35
xG 0.47–0.22 (68%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Zetterberg11:17
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Eaves – Miller – Helm3:39
xG 0.18–0.11 (63%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Cleary – Zetterberg4:38
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRafalski – Ericsson15:28
xG 0.87–0.59 (59%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Lidstrom – Stuart16:58
xG 0.75–0.53 (58%)attempts 24–12goals 0–1
- Lidstrom – Kronwall2:49
xG 0.02–0.11 (18%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKopecky – Dowell – Skille11:40
xG 0.58–0.24 (71%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Sharp – Brouwer – Toews13:23
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Pisani – Bolland – Bickell14:20
xG 0.27–0.83 (24%)attempts 7–25goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCullimore – Boynton8:09
xG 0.47–0.10 (82%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Campbell – Hjalmarsson18:59
xG 0.52–0.24 (68%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook17:34
xG 0.50–0.99 (34%)attempts 12–27goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).