Sat, Dec 18, 2010·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 1, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 07 | 012 | 16 | 125 |
| PHI | 011 | 115 | 313 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:06PHINikolay ZherdevAssists: Mike Richards · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P3 3:19PHIAndreas NodlGWGAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
- P3 8:23NYRDerek StepanAssists: Alex Frolov, Erik Christensen · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 9:57PHIVille LeinoAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Daniel Brière · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 15:06PHINikolay ZherdevPPAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:10NYRSean Avery: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:06PHIBraydon Coburn: Holding2 min
- P1 10:00NYRMarc Staal: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:07PHIJames van Riemsdyk: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:19NYRBrandon Dubinsky: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:59PHINikolay Zherdev: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:49NYRMarc Staal: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:33NYRDale Weise: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:33PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:07PHIScott Hartnell: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brière won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFedotenko – Boyle – Prust9:27
xG 0.66–0.58 (53%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Frolov – Christensen – Anisimov2:31
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Frolov – Dubinsky – Anisimov6:04
xG 0.06–0.10 (38%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Dubinsky – Stepan4:02
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Staal2:57
xG 0.56–0.03 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Staal – Girardi17:54
xG 0.86–0.49 (64%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Eminger2:48
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Hartnell – Leino13:08
xG 0.73–0.13 (85%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Richards – Giroux – Nodl9:03
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Zherdev – Carter – van Riemsdyk10:09
xG 0.80–0.88 (47%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Betts – Carcillo – Powe7:12
xG 0.15–0.48 (24%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn15:33
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Carle – Meszaros14:12
xG 0.86–0.67 (56%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Bartulis11:13
xG 0.95–0.88 (52%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).