Sat, Dec 18, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Phoenix Coyotes 4, New York Islanders 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 18 | 013 | 211 | 03 | 3 | 435 |
| NYI | 019 | 212 | 19 | 04 | 1 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:57PHXRadim VrbataPPAssists: Shane Doan, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 9:17NYIJesse JoensuuAssists: John Tavares, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 14:46NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Jesse Joensuu · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 4:03PHXWojtek WolskiAssists: Shane Doan, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–2
- P3 6:22NYIRob SchrempPPAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.45 xG2–3
- P3 18:32PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Radim Vrbata, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.31 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHX Shane Doan scored
- 2. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
- 3. PHX Radim Vrbata scored
- 4. NYI Rob Schremp stopped
- 5. PHX Kyle Turris scored
Penalties (17)
- P1 2:13PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:13NYITrevor Gillies: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 6:23NYIMatt Martin: Charging2 min
- P1 11:03NYITrevor Gillies: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:17PHXShane Doan: Holding2 min
- P1 11:30PHXDerek Morris: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:32PHXEd Jovanovski: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:32PHXAdrian Aucoin: Boarding2 min
- P1 15:37NYIMatt Moulson: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:00NYIRadek Martinek: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:01PHXNolan Yonkman: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:27PHXTaylor Pyatt: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:01NYIJon Sim: Holding2 min
- P3 5:02PHXTaylor Pyatt: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:39PHXEric Belanger: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:16NYIJack Hillen: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:49NYIMichael Grabner: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Bissonnette – Korpikoski2:05
xG 0.96–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Doan – Belanger – Wolski10:41
xG 0.77–0.54 (59%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Stempniak – Turris9:02
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal11:08
xG 0.59–0.48 (55%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Jovanovski10:56
xG 0.96–0.10 (91%)attempts 25–6goals 0–0
- Yonkman – Ekman-Larsson6:18
xG 0.91–0.51 (64%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Morris2:02
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Sim – Schremp – Comeau7:41
xG 0.38–0.37 (50%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares11:06
xG 0.62–0.70 (47%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Joensuu – Grabner8:27
xG 0.28–0.70 (29%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Gillies – Konopka – Martin2:14
xG 0.00–0.96 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic12:44
xG 0.44–0.31 (58%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Jurcina – Hillen7:49
xG 0.16–0.63 (20%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
- Martinek – Wisniewski10:27
xG 0.65–1.48 (31%)attempts 18–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).