Sat, Dec 18, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh
Anaheim Ducks 2, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 111 | 015 | 119 | 245 |
| CAR | 211 | 111 | 110 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:39ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Corey Perry, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 7:27CAREric StaalPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Joni Pitkanen · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 19:33CAREric StaalPPAssists: Jamie McBain, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.46 xG1–2
- P2 1:41CAREric StaalGWGAssists: Erik Cole, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–3
- P3 18:12ANARyan GetzlafPPAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Corey Perry · Slap, 0.00 xG2–3
- P3 19:55CARJoe CorvoENAssists: Brandon Sutter · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 7:00ANARyan Getzlaf: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:11CARJoni Pitkanen: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 18:55ANABobby Ryan: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:25ANAToni Lydman: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:24CARJay Harrison: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:24CARTuomo Ruutu: Interference2 min
- P3 2:40CARJoe Corvo: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:59CARJoe Corvo: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:13CARBrandon Sutter: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 17:29CAREric Staal: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:55ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:55CARBrandon Sutter: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:55ANABobby Ryan: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:55ANACorey Perry: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan9:23
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Selanne – Getzlaf – Perry5:24
xG 0.21–0.02 (91%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Blake – Parros – Chipchura6:30
xG 0.51–0.36 (59%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Lupul – Bonino – McMillan2:43
xG 0.11–0.03 (81%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMara – Fowler12:08
xG 0.63–0.42 (60%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Brookbank – Sbisa6:41
xG 0.51–0.43 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Brookbank – Fowler5:18
xG 0.37–0.31 (55%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestCole – Staal – Skinner13:00
xG 1.35–0.60 (69%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
- Bodie – Carter – Boychuk5:13
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Samsonov – LaRose – Dwyer5:57
xG 0.10–0.17 (38%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Jokinen – Sutter13:48
xG 0.23–0.81 (22%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – White10:33
xG 0.83–0.14 (85%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Pitkanen – McBain8:11
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Harrison – McBain5:03
xG 0.39–0.49 (45%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).