Sat, Dec 18, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta
New Jersey Devils 1, Atlanta Thrashers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 04 | 111 | 012 | 127 |
| ATL | 311 | 17 | 34 | 722 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:56ATLRon HainseyAssists: Brent Sopel, Nik Antropov · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 15:30ATLEric BoultonGWGAssists: Chris Thorburn, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 16:08ATLEvander KaneAssists: Anthony Stewart, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 6:37ATLAndrew LaddAssists: Rich Peverley, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P2 15:43NJDIlya KovalchukPPAssists: Travis Zajac, Patrik Elias · Slap, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 4:07ATLEric BoultonAssists: Chris Thorburn, Jim Slater · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–5
- P3 16:54ATLEric BoultonUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–6
- P3 18:58ATLChris ThorburnAssists: Evander Kane, Anthony Stewart · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:44NJDAdam Mair: Holding2 min
- P2 1:45ATLChris Thorburn: Holding2 min
- P2 7:35NJDAdam Mair: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 7:35ATLJohnny Oduya: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 9:35NJDBrian Rolston: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:38ATLNik Antropov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:25NJDTravis Zajac: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:25ATLRich Peverley: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:20ATLRon Hainsey: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Peverley won the faceoff against Arnott
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMair – Sestito – Pelley7:22
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Langenbrunner – Elias – Zajac8:54
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Arnott – Zubrus – Kovalchuk6:23
xG 0.08–0.14 (38%)attempts 3–6goals 0–2
- Rolston – Clarkson – Tedenby5:13
xG 0.03–0.13 (20%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Tallinder6:03
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Fayne – Greene13:26
xG 0.55–0.50 (52%)attempts 16–9goals 0–3
- Tallinder – Volchenkov9:17
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 9–3goals 0–2
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestBoulton – Thorburn – Slater8:36
xG 0.59–0.14 (81%)attempts 7–8goals 3–0
- Modin – Stapleton – Burmistrov8:53
xG 0.08–0.11 (41%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Antropov – Ladd – Peverley12:35
xG 0.16–0.21 (43%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Stewart – Little – Kane10:51
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSopel – Hainsey13:22
xG 0.69–0.09 (88%)attempts 7–8goals 4–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien18:43
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian2:14
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).