Sat, Dec 18, 2010·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Dallas Stars 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 16 | 07 | 110 | 223 |
| CBJ | 114 | 013 | 09 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:13DALBrad RichardsPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 19:11CBJFedor TyutinAssists: Ethan Moreau, Anton Stralman · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 6:17DALBrad RichardsGWGAssists: Loui Eriksson · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
Penalties (26)
- P1 9:50CBJTom Sestito: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 9:50DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:09CBJJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:15CBJMarc Methot: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:43DALBrenden Morrow: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 12:43CBJMathieu Garon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 14:29CBJJakub Voracek: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:36CBJMarc Methot: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:17DALBrenden Morrow: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:20DALBrenden Morrow: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:06DALSteve Ott: Misconduct10 min
- P2 10:06CBJTom Sestito: Misconduct10 min
- P2 10:06DALSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:06CBJTom Sestito: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:06DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:06CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:14DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:54DALMike Ribeiro: Elbowing2 min
- P3 3:02CBJDerick Brassard: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:09CBJDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:09DALJamie Benn: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:51DALTrevor Daley: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:21CBJTom Sestito: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:21CBJJared Boll: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:21DALJames Neal: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:39CBJAntoine Vermette: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Eriksson – Wandell2:46
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Ott – Burish – Wandell2:56
xG 0.02–0.16 (12%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal8:48
xG 0.18–0.39 (32%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn8:14
xG 0.30–0.65 (31%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Robidas – Skrastins3:20
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Robidas – Grossmann9:15
xG 0.57–0.71 (44%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Woywitka – Daley9:15
xG 0.05–0.36 (11%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMoreau – Pahlsson – Dorsett10:12
xG 0.51–0.12 (81%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek8:23
xG 0.54–0.29 (65%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Huselius – Vermette – Umberger9:19
xG 0.33–0.12 (74%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Wilson – Boll – Sestito2:31
xG 0.10–0.22 (31%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Stralman10:28
xG 0.52–0.17 (75%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Hejda – Methot13:56
xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Commodore – Russell9:13
xG 0.18–0.37 (33%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).