Sat, Dec 18, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
San Jose Sharks 4, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 27 | 110 | 117 | 434 |
| STL | 03 | 111 | 08 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:30SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Dan Boyle, Ryane Clowe · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 18:15SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jamal Mayers · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 8:21SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Dan Boyle, Patrick Marleau · Deflected, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 10:44STLDavid BackesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–1
- P3 15:04SJSDevin SetoguchiAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.39 xG4–1
Penalties (16)
- P1 6:54SJSJason Demers: Holding2 min
- P1 7:49STLPatrik Berglund: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:39STLBrad Boyes: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:27STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:27SJSRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:48STLChris Porter: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:48SJSScott Nichol: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:18STLBrad Winchester: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:18SJSJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:10STLIan Cole: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:10SJSJamie McGinn: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:44SJSJason Demers: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P3 1:58STLPatrik Berglund: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:24STLBarret Jackman: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:24SJSRyane Clowe: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:54STLBrad Winchester: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Setoguchi – McGinn11:38
xG 1.57–0.17 (90%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Thornton – Heatley – Mitchell11:15
xG 0.20–0.13 (61%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Marleau – Clowe – Couture8:53
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Mayers – Nichol – Ferriero3:48
xG 0.02–0.03 (39%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Vlasic16:22
xG 1.74–0.30 (85%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Huskins – Demers13:07
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Wallin – Braun12:14
xG 0.25–0.16 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – D'Agostini – Berglund4:31
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- McClement – Steen – D'Agostini3:39
xG 0.15–0.05 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Boyes – Backes – Sobotka9:21
xG 0.09–0.12 (44%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- McClement – Steen – Crombeen3:42
xG 0.01–0.07 (11%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jackman – Strachan6:34
xG 0.08–0.12 (41%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Brewer – Johnson2:11
xG 0.06–0.12 (32%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Brewer – Cole12:49
xG 0.16–0.42 (28%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).