Sat, Dec 18, 2010·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Los Angeles Kings 6, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 412 | 214 | 08 | 634 |
| NSH | 114 | 06 | 010 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:15LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Dustin Brown, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 8:49LAKTrevor LewisGWGAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Kevin Westgarth · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 9:59LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Michal Handzus, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P1 10:23NSHSteve SullivanAssists: Ryan Suter, Colin Wilson · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–1
- P1 15:32LAKRyan SmythPPAssists: Dustin Brown, Jarret Stoll · Wrist, 0.40 xG4–1
- P2 3:43LAKAlexei PonikarovskyAssists: Oscar Moller, Trevor Lewis · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–1
- P2 16:04LAKRyan SmythAssists: Jarret Stoll, Oscar Moller · Wrist, 0.12 xG6–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:48NSHSteve Begin: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:12NSHShea Weber: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:53LAKAlec Martinez: Holding2 min
- P2 17:04NSHSteve Sullivan: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:42LAKJustin Williams: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:04LAKKevin Westgarth: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Smithson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Lewis – Westgarth8:05
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar13:14
xG 0.63–0.48 (57%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Smyth – Stoll – Moller11:17
xG 0.37–0.42 (47%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Handzus – Simmonds – Clifford11:39
xG 0.19–0.59 (24%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrold – Drewiske11:53
xG 0.40–0.18 (68%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Johnson – Doughty17:47
xG 1.12–1.01 (53%)attempts 20–20goals 3–0
- Scuderi – Drewiske2:27
xG 0.11–0.09 (57%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestErat – Goc – Kostitsyn9:05
xG 0.64–0.32 (67%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Sullivan – O'Reilly – Wilson8:37
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Dumont – Begin – Spaling5:45
xG 0.06–0.24 (19%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Erat – Kostitsyn – Spaling2:00
xG 0.04–0.25 (14%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – O'Brien2:11
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Klein – Sulzer2:00
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber17:17
xG 0.55–0.69 (44%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).