Sat, Dec 18, 2010·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 011 | 06 | 111 | 128 |
| VAN | 19 | 19 | 211 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:53VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 17:54VANJannik HansenGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler, Jeff Tambellini · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P3 8:14TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 14:57VANChristian EhrhoffAssists: Jannik Hansen, Alexander Edler · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 19:29VANHenrik SedinENAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Kevin Bieksa · Backhand, 0.69 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:00TORTim Brent: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 10:38VANAlexander Edler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:49VANDan Hamhuis: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:58VANKeith Ballard: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:58TORNikolay Kulemin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 15:15TORMike Komisarek: Interference2 min
- P2 5:29VANAndrew Alberts: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:33TORKris Versteeg: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:33TORKris Versteeg: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:00TORMike Komisarek: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestVersteeg – Kessel – Bozak11:43
xG 0.64–0.18 (78%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Sjostrom – Armstrong – Brent6:58
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Orr – Mitchell – Rosehill2:07
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin12:23
xG 0.37–0.66 (36%)attempts 8–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Phaneuf14:55
xG 1.00–0.46 (68%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson8:21
xG 0.34–0.04 (89%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Gunnarsson2:37
xG 0.03–0.08 (28%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Tambellini – Hansen4:14
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 3–4goals 2–0
- Samuelsson – Kesler – Tambellini4:38
xG 0.18–0.05 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows12:37
xG 0.59–0.52 (53%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Bolduc – Glass – Volpatti2:26
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Edler9:44
xG 0.48–0.40 (55%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Alberts – Ballard6:53
xG 0.13–0.18 (41%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa13:13
xG 0.59–0.68 (46%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).