Mon, Dec 20, 2010·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Florida Panthers 5, Philadelphia Flyers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 210 | 214 | 110 | 534 |
| PHI | 08 | 08 | 010 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:27FLABill ThomasGWGAssists: Steve Reinprecht, Tomas Vokoun · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 19:16FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Bryan McCabe, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 3:53FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Marty Reasoner, Evgenii Dadonov · Backhand, 0.43 xG3–0
- P2 13:12FLAMike SantorelliAssists: Steve Bernier · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–0
- P3 11:35FLADmitry KulikovAssists: Bryan McCabe, Stephen Weiss · Snap, 0.02 xG5–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:57PHISean O'Donnell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:59PHIMike Richards: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:17PHIAndreas Nodl: Holding2 min
- P3 5:40FLADmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
- P3 12:51PHIScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReasoner – Matthias – Dadonov11:39
xG 1.91–0.14 (93%)attempts 18–6goals 2–0
- Bernier – Booth – Santorelli10:10
xG 0.85–0.50 (63%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Weiss – Higgins – Frolik13:25
xG 0.68–0.54 (56%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Reinprecht – Hordichuk – Thomas5:06
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Kulikov13:41
xG 2.01–0.56 (78%)attempts 19–14goals 3–0
- Weaver – Garrison17:49
xG 0.89–0.32 (74%)attempts 19–21goals 2–0
- Allen – Wideman13:59
xG 0.93–0.55 (63%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestZherdev – Carter – van Riemsdyk11:06
xG 0.64–0.50 (56%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Betts – Carcillo – Powe4:02
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino9:37
xG 0.23–1.00 (19%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Richards – Giroux – Nodl11:17
xG 0.27–1.55 (15%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Meszaros14:32
xG 0.64–0.40 (61%)attempts 24–8goals 0–2
- Timonen – Coburn15:44
xG 0.42–0.69 (38%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Coburn – Carle2:35
xG 0.05–0.97 (5%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).