Mon, Dec 20, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Vancouver Canucks 3, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 012 | 28 | 19 | 329 |
| STL | 03 | 17 | 06 | 116 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:12VANAaron VolpattiAssists: Alexandre Bolduc · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 9:16VANRyan KeslerGWGAssists: Raffi Torres, Mikael Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 17:57STLAlexander SteenAssists: Adam Cracknell, Roman Polak · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 18:23VANJeff TambelliniPPAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:42STLBrad Winchester: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:17STLAlex Pietrangelo: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:43STLEric Brewer: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:03STLJay McClement: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:31VANAlexandre Burrows: Holding2 min
- P3 6:06VANTanner Glass: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:29STLDavid Backes: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:37VANKevin Bieksa: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Malhotra
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMalhotra – Samuelsson – Torres8:21
xG 0.76–0.03 (97%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Kesler – Tambellini – Hansen10:44
xG 0.73–0.29 (72%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Bolduc – Glass – Volpatti6:25
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows9:53
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bieksa15:41
xG 1.36–0.40 (77%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Edler14:04
xG 0.53–0.38 (58%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Ballard – Rome13:37
xG 0.18–0.13 (59%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestWinchester – Crombeen – Berglund3:59
xG 0.12–0.02 (86%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Winchester – McClement – Crombeen3:20
xG 0.04–0.13 (22%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Boyes – Backes – Sobotka10:23
xG 0.48–0.62 (44%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Steen – D'Agostini – Berglund3:29
xG 0.03–0.19 (13%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Colaiacovo – Polak6:21
xG 0.17–0.17 (50%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Jackman – Polak8:19
xG 0.13–0.24 (35%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo6:43
xG 0.25–0.44 (37%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).