Mon, Dec 20, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Calgary Flames 1, Minnesota Wild 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 012 | 113 | 010 | 135 |
| MIN | 110 | 03 | 310 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:18MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Marco Scandella, Martin Havlat · Wrist, 0.37 xG0–1
- P2 3:23CGYOlli JokinenAssists: Jarome Iginla, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 6:13MINMartin HavlatPPGWGAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Marek Zidlicky · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 9:59MINJohn MaddenPPAssists: Andrew Brunette, Greg Zanon · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 19:14MINCal ClutterbuckENAssists: Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.55 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:28MINMartin Havlat: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:14MINClayton Stoner: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:29CGYTom Kostopoulos: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:11MINNiklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:37CGYBrendan Morrison: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:03CGYRobyn Regehr: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:04MINJohn Madden: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Jokinen – Tanguay11:34
xG 0.85–0.56 (60%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Morrison – Moss – Glencross8:02
xG 0.28–0.07 (80%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Conroy – Kostopoulos – Jackman6:13
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
- Hagman – Stajan – Bourque10:32
xG 0.30–0.53 (36%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Giordano13:24
xG 1.00–0.85 (54%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Sarich – Pardy2:50
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Sarich – Regehr14:56
xG 0.33–0.25 (58%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHavlat – Bouchard – Brodziak9:23
xG 0.96–0.23 (80%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Madden – Nystrom – Clutterbuck7:58
xG 0.09–0.09 (49%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Cullen – Miettinen – O'Sullivan7:01
xG 0.02–0.36 (4%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Brunette – Koivu – Kobasew11:28
xG 0.21–0.75 (22%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Spurgeon11:37
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Burns – Spurgeon2:12
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Zanon – Burns2:02
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).