Tue, Dec 21, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington
New Jersey Devils 1, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 012 | 115 | 09 | 136 |
| WSH | 110 | 311 | 17 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:41WSHAndrew GordonAssists: Marcus Johansson, John Erskine · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 4:56NJDPatrik EliasPPAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Travis Zajac · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 10:00WSHJay BeagleGWGAssists: David Steckel, Matt Bradley · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 12:39WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Andrew Gordon, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 16:31WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 12:01WSHMike KnubleAssists: Tom Poti, Brooks Laich · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:34NJDAdam Mair: Interference2 min
- P2 0:50WSHAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:02WSHMatt Bradley: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:28NJDAnton Volchenkov: Holding2 min
- P2 17:01WSHBrooks Laich: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:17NJDAdam Mair: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:12NJDMartin Brodeur: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:54NJDRod Pelley: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:25WSHScott Hannan: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Mair
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Clarkson – Pelley9:49
xG 0.38–0.23 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Rolston – Zubrus – Mair8:27
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Sestito – Tedenby9:32
xG 0.07–0.29 (19%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Langenbrunner – Elias – Zajac9:43
xG 0.27–0.57 (32%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene9:57
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 10–10goals 0–2
- Volchenkov – Fayne2:07
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Greene – Corrente3:34
xG 0.02–0.02 (46%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBradley – Steckel – Beagle5:43
xG 0.38–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Chimera – Gordon – Johansson7:28
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Semin – Ovechkin – Backstrom12:14
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Knuble – Laich – Perreault9:20
xG 0.30–0.53 (36%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Green12:22
xG 0.69–0.24 (74%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Erskine – Green3:15
xG 0.10–0.05 (69%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Poti – Erskine12:12
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).