Tue, Dec 21, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta
St. Louis Blues 4, Atlanta Thrashers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 110 | 18 | 29 | 427 |
| ATL | 112 | 011 | 116 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:07STLBrad BoyesAssists: Chris Porter · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 6:43ATLBryan LittleAssists: Evander Kane, Anthony Stewart · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 18:39STLAlexander SteenAssists: Barret Jackman, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 2:13STLAlex PietrangeloGWGAssists: Vladimir Sobotka · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 12:37ATLDustin ByfuglienAssists: Toby Enstrom, Nik Antropov · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 19:12STLVladimir SobotkaENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.67 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:20ATLNik Antropov: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:34ATLDustin Byfuglien: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 18:22STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:45STLBarret Jackman: Kneeing2 min
- P2 2:40STLTy Conklin: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:08ATLBryan Little: Holding2 min
- P3 3:22ATLBrent Sopel: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:02STLB.J. Crombeen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestJanssen – Porter – Cracknell2:30
xG 0.23–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Backes – Sobotka – D'Agostini7:09
xG 0.20–0.25 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Steen – Crombeen – Sobotka2:24
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Steen – Crombeen – Berglund9:17
xG 0.42–0.70 (37%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Johnson2:22
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo9:09
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Brewer – Polak2:18
xG 0.02–0.06 (26%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Ladd – Peverley13:09
xG 0.91–0.24 (79%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Stewart – Little – Kane12:34
xG 0.65–0.33 (66%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Modin – Stapleton – Burmistrov5:37
xG 0.09–0.20 (31%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Boulton – Thorburn – Slater6:02
xG 0.15–0.31 (33%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien16:31
xG 1.06–0.41 (72%)attempts 23–15goals 1–1
- Oduya – Bogosian11:59
xG 0.74–0.67 (52%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Sopel – Hainsey10:08
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).