Tue, Dec 21, 2010·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Calgary Flames 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 09 | 111 | 010 | 130 |
| CBJ | 112 | 117 | 18 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:14CBJJakub VoracekAssists: Marc Methot, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 11:18CBJJared BollGWGAssists: Tom Sestito, Kyle Wilson · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–2
- P2 16:34CGYOlli JokinenPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 19:02CBJRostislav KleslaENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:59CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:59CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:10CGYRobyn Regehr: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:10CBJTom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:10CBJAnton Stralman: Holding2 min
- P1 13:59CGYJarome Iginla: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:23CGYOlli Jokinen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:46CBJAntoine Vermette: Interference2 min
- P2 16:01CBJAntoine Vermette: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 5:12CGYBrendan Morrison: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:20CBJDerick Brassard: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Moss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKotalik – Hagman – Stajan2:46
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Tanguay14:45
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Morrison – Kostopoulos – Jackman4:04
xG 0.15–0.07 (67%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Moss2:43
xG 0.03–0.02 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBabchuk – Pardy12:07
xG 0.45–0.13 (78%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Giordano5:56
xG 0.07–0.05 (60%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Sarich – Regehr3:19
xG 0.00–0.02 (19%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Brassard – Voracek11:18
xG 0.68–0.10 (87%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Wilson – Boll – Sestito4:46
xG 0.60–0.18 (77%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Huselius – Vermette – Nash12:13
xG 0.48–0.31 (60%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Moreau – Pahlsson – Dorsett13:25
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Hejda18:28
xG 1.06–0.39 (73%)attempts 17–18goals 1–0
- Klesla – Methot14:36
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Russell – Stralman9:12
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).