Tue, Dec 21, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Montréal Canadiens 2, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 010 | 110 | 19 | 229 |
| DAL | 27 | 25 | 15 | 517 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:59DALAdam BurishAssists: Steve Ott, Stephane Robidas · Deflected, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 13:59DALJamie BennSHAssists: Steve Ott · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 2:31DALKarlis SkrastinsGWGAssists: James Neal, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.45 xG0–3
- P2 10:43MTLMathieu DarcheAssists: Travis Moen, Tom Pyatt · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 17:00DALBrad RichardsPPAssists: Stephane Robidas, Loui Eriksson · Slap, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 12:15MTLBrian GiontaSHAssists: Scott Gomez · Slap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 13:08DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Stephane Robidas · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:38DALBrenden Morrow: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:38DALBrian Sutherby: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:38MTLP.K. Subban: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:43DALBrandon Segal: Interference2 min
- P2 16:14MTLP.K. Subban: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 5:44DALAdam Burish: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:00MTLRoman Hamrlik: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:44DALBrenden Morrow: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:44DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:44MTLAlexandre Picard: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Gionta – Pacioretty13:47
xG 1.53–0.29 (84%)attempts 24–7goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Plekanec – Eller13:27
xG 0.84–0.22 (79%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Halpern – Lapierre – Pouliot2:22
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Darche – Lapierre – Pyatt6:27
xG 0.04–0.05 (45%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPicard – Subban6:23
xG 1.18–0.07 (95%)attempts 14–1goals 0–0
- Gill – Subban6:55
xG 0.44–0.02 (96%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Gill – Gorges4:18
xG 0.18–0.04 (81%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Petersen – Sutherby – Wandell4:50
xG 0.05–0.16 (22%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn13:48
xG 0.33–0.47 (41%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal13:28
xG 0.82–1.06 (44%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
- Ott – Segal – Burish8:41
xG 0.05–0.55 (8%)attempts 6–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkrastins – Niskanen9:40
xG 0.69–0.37 (65%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Robidas – Grossmann16:56
xG 0.27–0.28 (49%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Woywitka – Daley18:11
xG 0.23–1.70 (12%)attempts 3–35goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).