Tue, Dec 21, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver
Los Angeles Kings 5, Colorado Avalanche 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 19 | 110 | 313 | 532 |
| COL | 07 | 08 | 08 | 023 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:26LAKRob ScuderiGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 6:31LAKBrad RichardsonAssists: Drew Doughty, Dustin Brown · Deflected, 0.19 xG2–0
- P3 7:27LAKDustin BrownAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–0
- P3 15:03LAKDustin BrownAssists: Ryan Smyth, Rob Scuderi · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–0
- P3 17:49LAKJustin WilliamsPPAssists: Jack Johnson, Jarret Stoll · Slap, 0.03 xG5–0
Penalties (8)
- P2 0:55COLGreg Mauldin: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:40LAKTrevor Lewis: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:19COLKevin Shattenkirk: Interference2 min
- P3 7:10LAKWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:10COLAdam Foote: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:38LAKAnze Kopitar: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:45LAKDustin Brown: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:44COLRyan O'Reilly: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Richardson – Kopitar11:18
xG 1.43–0.17 (89%)attempts 19–7goals 2–0
- Handzus – Simmonds – Clifford10:26
xG 0.92–0.14 (87%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Sturm – Ponikarovsky – Lewis7:55
xG 0.16–0.09 (62%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Smyth – Williams – Stoll9:01
xG 0.06–0.44 (13%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Martinez17:11
xG 1.80–0.34 (84%)attempts 21–15goals 1–0
- Harrold – Drewiske11:47
xG 0.68–0.10 (87%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Johnson – Doughty18:17
xG 0.59–0.49 (55%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestPorter – Stastny – Galiardi10:07
xG 0.38–0.06 (86%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Mauldin – Winnik – O'Reilly11:34
xG 0.13–0.24 (36%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Jones – Duchene11:06
xG 0.21–1.33 (14%)attempts 8–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWilson – Shattenkirk2:10
xG 0.25–0.00 (99%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Shattenkirk5:34
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Foote – Wilson4:00
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).