Wed, Dec 22, 2010·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Florida Panthers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 18 | 013 | 116 | 237 |
| PIT | 317 | 15 | 112 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:30PITMark LetestuAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Chris Conner · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 2:43FLAStephen WeissAssists: Michael Frolik, Mike Weaver · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 7:44PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz, Brent Johnson · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P1 10:57PITMatt CookeGWGAssists: Max Talbot, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 6:19PITBen LovejoyUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 16:24FLABryan McCabeAssists: Bill Thomas, Darcy Hordichuk · Slap, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 19:32PITPascal DupuisENAssists: Kris Letang, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.62 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:20FLAMike Santorelli: Interference2 min
- P1 11:22PITBen Lovejoy: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:22FLAShawn Matthias: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:57PITBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min
- P2 12:04FLADarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:04PITMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:50FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:19PITTyler Kennedy: Interference2 min
- P2 18:07FLAEvgenii Dadonov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 2:29PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:59FLAMike Weaver: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Higgins – Frolik8:48
xG 0.67–0.16 (80%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Reinprecht – Hordichuk – Thomas5:24
xG 0.19–0.02 (89%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Reasoner – Matthias – Dadonov6:26
xG 0.52–0.47 (53%)attempts 12–10goals 0–3
- Bernier – Booth – Santorelli9:27
xG 0.06–0.48 (12%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Kulikov8:31
xG 0.79–0.11 (88%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Weaver – Garrison12:49
xG 0.39–0.15 (72%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Allen – Wideman5:59
xG 0.08–0.29 (22%)attempts 7–8goals 0–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Talbot – Malkin7:31
xG 0.41–0.29 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Kennedy – Conner – Letestu11:28
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Asham – Adams – Rupp4:39
xG 0.04–0.03 (61%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby9:23
xG 0.55–0.80 (41%)attempts 11–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Lovejoy9:21
xG 0.59–0.42 (58%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Michalek – Goligoski2:46
xG 0.08–0.03 (73%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Letang2:57
xG 0.25–0.26 (48%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).