Thu, Dec 23, 2010·TD Garden, Boston
Atlanta Thrashers 1, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 010 | 18 | 09 | 127 |
| BOS | 110 | 213 | 113 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:00BOSPatrice BergeronSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 4:04BOSMichael RyderPPGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Dennis Seidenberg · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 5:00BOSShawn ThorntonAssists: Adam McQuaid, Daniel Paille · Slap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 8:40ATLDustin ByfuglienAssists: Evander Kane, Bryan Little · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 4:54BOSShawn ThorntonAssists: Daniel Paille, Gregory Campbell · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–4
Penalties (24)
- P1 0:02BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:02ATLEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:46BOSZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:57ATLAndrew Ladd: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 5:52BOSMilan Lucic: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:48ATLRon Hainsey: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:51ATLJohnny Oduya: Holding2 min
- P2 3:13ATLAndrew Ladd: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:54ATLEvander Kane: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:54ATLFreddy Meyer: Elbowing2 min
- P3 15:54ATLFreddy Meyer: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:54ATLBryan Little: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:54ATLBryan Little: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 15:54ATLAnthony Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:54ATLAnthony Stewart: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 15:54BOSMilan Lucic: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 15:54BOSMilan Lucic: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P3 15:54BOSNathan Horton: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:54BOSMarc Savard: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:54BOSMarc Savard: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 15:54BOSAndrew Ference: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:54BOSAndrew Ference: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:54BOSAndrew Ference: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 16:59ATLTim Stapleton: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Campbell won the faceoff against Slater
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- Ladd – Peverley – Stapleton10:46
xG 0.57–0.55 (51%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Stewart – Little – Kane12:17
xG 0.30–0.36 (46%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Modin – Eager – Burmistrov8:14
xG 0.30–0.42 (41%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Boulton – Thorburn – Slater8:19
xG 0.03–0.31 (10%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Oduya – Meyer11:05
xG 0.20–0.17 (55%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Sopel – Hainsey12:16
xG 0.27–0.25 (51%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Oduya – Byfuglien3:06
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Campbell – Paille8:54
xG 0.39–0.10 (80%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Ryder – Wheeler – Krejci10:57
xG 0.36–0.18 (66%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Recchi – Bergeron – Seguin10:35
xG 0.35–0.29 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Savard – Horton – Lucic10:21
xG 0.56–0.52 (52%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Kampfer13:06
xG 0.67–0.21 (76%)attempts 16–16goals 1–1
- Ference – McQuaid13:24
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Chara – Boychuk16:11
xG 0.55–0.89 (38%)attempts 22–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).