Thu, Dec 23, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Islanders 5, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 38 | 13 | 13 | 514 |
| NJD | 06 | 117 | 012 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:09NYIJosh BaileyUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 5:39NYIJosh BaileyPPGWGAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Blake Comeau · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–0
- P1 11:00NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Travis Hamonic, PA Parenteau · Slap, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 1:21NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Patrik Elias, Jamie Langenbrunner · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 10:43NYIFrans NielsenSHAssists: Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–1
- P3 3:15NYIBlake ComeauAssists: Rob Schremp, James Wisniewski · Slap, 0.04 xG5–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:04NJDAdam Mair: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 2:04NYIZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:45NJDJason Arnott: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:26NYIJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:31NYIZenon Konopka: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:00NYIMichael Grabner: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:29NYIBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:20NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:20NYIZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zubrus won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestSim – Schremp – Comeau15:01
xG 0.27–0.20 (58%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Konopka – Tavares2:41
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Grabner – Bailey11:44
xG 0.17–0.52 (25%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Joensuu – Tavares10:04
xG 0.09–0.48 (15%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic13:23
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 2–1
- Jurcina – Gervais2:15
xG 0.02–0.00 (85%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Gervais – Hillen3:31
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestLangenbrunner – Elias – Zajac14:29
xG 0.60–0.15 (80%)attempts 15–2goals 1–1
- Rolston – Arnott – Kovalchuk8:27
xG 0.44–0.11 (80%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Zubrus – Clarkson – Sestito4:37
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Mair – Sestito – Pelley3:16
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene9:54
xG 0.87–0.33 (72%)attempts 16–4goals 1–1
- Volchenkov – Salmela12:28
xG 0.52–0.07 (88%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- White – Tallinder17:23
xG 0.23–0.37 (39%)attempts 12–5goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).