Thu, Dec 23, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Washington Capitals 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 16 | 06 | 111 | 04 | 2 | 327 |
| WSH | 012 | 113 | 15 | 04 | 1 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:21PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 13:43WSHMike GreenPPAssists: Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 0:17PITChris KunitzAssists: Sidney Crosby, Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–1
- P3 14:31WSHMike KnubleSHAssists: Brooks Laich · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. WSH Alex Ovechkin scored
- 2. PIT Kris Letang scored
- 3. WSH Alexander Semin stopped
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 5. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 6. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
- 7. WSH Mike Knuble stopped
- 8. PIT Mark Letestu stopped
- 9. WSH Brooks Laich stopped
- 10. PIT Chris Kunitz stopped
- 11. WSH Mathieu Perreault stopped
- 12. PIT Tyler Kennedy stopped
- 13. WSH Mike Green stopped
- 14. PIT Pascal Dupuis scored
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:49PITMatt Cooke: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:49WSHJohn Erskine: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:10PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference2 min
- P1 7:20PITChris Conner: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 7:59PITZbynek Michalek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:47WSHBrooks Laich: Interference2 min
- P2 1:23WSHMike Green: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 4:59PITAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:42PITMike Rupp: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:51PITMatt Cooke: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 17:01WSHAlex Ovechkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:47WSHMathieu Perreault: Holding2 min
- P3 9:21WSHNicklas Backstrom: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:25WSHMathieu Perreault: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Crosby3:23
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Cooke – Talbot – Malkin6:43
xG 0.14–0.12 (53%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Cooke – Dupuis – Talbot2:54
xG 0.03–0.05 (38%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby7:30
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Michalek11:23
xG 0.51–0.06 (90%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Michalek – Goligoski2:18
xG 0.06–0.02 (79%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Letang2:10
xG 0.04–0.08 (32%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestFehr – Ovechkin – Perreault3:48
xG 0.40–0.03 (93%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Knuble – Laich – Backstrom9:26
xG 0.58–0.39 (60%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Semin – Ovechkin – Backstrom2:19
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Semin – Ovechkin – Perreault5:12
xG 0.11–0.05 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Green13:21
xG 0.74–0.12 (86%)attempts 23–10goals 0–0
- Erskine – Carlson2:44
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hannan – Alzner3:05
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).