Thu, Dec 23, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Calgary Flames 3, Dallas Stars 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 16 | 010 | 115 | 02 | 1 | 333 |
| DAL | 14 | 02 | 17 | 03 | 0 | 216 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:03CGYAnton BabchukPPAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Brendan Morrison · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 17:13DALMike RibeiroPPAssists: Loui Eriksson, Brad Richards · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 2:41DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–2
- P3 18:39CGYAlex TanguayAssists: Jarome Iginla, Rene Bourque · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DAL Loui Eriksson stopped
- 2. CGY Alex Tanguay scored
- 3. DAL Brad Richards stopped
- 4. CGY Niklas Hagman stopped
- 5. DAL Mike Ribeiro stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:19CGYJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:19DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 9:04DALSteve Ott: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:36DALNicklas Grossmann: Holding2 min
- P1 16:57CGYTim Jackman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 1:11DALAdam Burish: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:16CGYAlex Tanguay: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 18:01CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:55CGYRobyn Regehr: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:55DALBrandon Segal: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:28DALSteve Ott: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKotalik – Hagman – Stajan11:29
xG 0.31–0.12 (71%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Morrison – Glencross – Bourque10:21
xG 0.13–0.04 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Moss6:47
xG 0.21–0.16 (56%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Tanguay13:40
xG 0.33–0.67 (33%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Giordano14:46
xG 0.33–0.03 (92%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Regehr – Bouwmeester15:04
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Sarich – Pardy3:46
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Benn12:30
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal10:31
xG 0.38–0.28 (58%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Richards – Ott – Eriksson2:25
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Ott – Segal – Burish3:21
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Grossmann17:15
xG 0.69–0.33 (68%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Fistric – Niskanen11:04
xG 0.12–0.16 (44%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Woywitka – Daley19:09
xG 0.19–0.66 (23%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).