Thu, Dec 23, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver
Minnesota Wild 3, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 211 | 113 | 08 | 332 |
| COL | 18 | 014 | 015 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:23MINMatt CullenSHAssists: Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–0
- P1 10:08COLDavid JonesPPAssists: Brandon Yip, Matt Hunwick · Backhand, 0.34 xG1–1
- P1 16:04MINMatt CullenGWGAssists: Marek Zidlicky · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 2:46MINAndrew BrunettePPAssists: Matt Cullen, Antti Miettinen · Backhand, 0.33 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:53MINMartin Havlat: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:18MINMikko Koivu: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:31COLRyan Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:31MINKyle Brodziak: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:20COLDavid Koci: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:08COLKevin Porter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:22COLDaniel Winnik: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Miettinen – O'Sullivan9:20
xG 1.02–0.45 (70%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Madden – Nystrom – Clutterbuck7:48
xG 0.11–0.10 (53%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Havlat – Bouchard – Brodziak9:24
xG 0.32–0.52 (38%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Brunette – Koivu – Kobasew10:57
xG 0.18–0.53 (25%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Spurgeon11:08
xG 0.62–0.12 (84%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Burns – Scandella15:58
xG 0.35–0.37 (49%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Zanon – Zidlicky19:15
xG 0.74–1.04 (42%)attempts 24–23goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMauldin – Winnik – O'Reilly8:53
xG 0.29–0.12 (72%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Jones – Porter – Stastny11:05
xG 0.57–0.57 (50%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Yip – Duchene6:07
xG 0.02–0.16 (12%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Galiardi – Duchene8:43
xG 0.29–0.65 (31%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFoote – Liles2:10
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Wilson3:54
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Wilson – Shattenkirk6:32
xG 0.36–0.10 (78%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).