Sun, Dec 26, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 06 | 022 | 117 | 145 |
| OTT | 212 | 16 | 06 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:14OTTMike FisherPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Sergei Gonchar · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 13:42OTTErik KarlssonGWGAssists: Chris Kelly, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 0:20OTTErik KarlssonPPAssists: Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.02 xG0–3
- P3 16:38PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Matt Cooke, Chris Kunitz · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–3
Penalties (18)
- P1 2:07OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:07PITEric Godard: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:13PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:40PITChris Kunitz: Charging2 min · PPG
- P2 2:57PITKris Letang: Boarding2 min
- P2 2:57OTTRyan Shannon: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:01OTTNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:01PITDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:01OTTChris Phillips: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:35PITEric Godard: Misconduct10 min
- P2 18:24OTTJarkko Ruutu: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:05PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:30PITBrooks Orpik: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 10:07PITChris Kunitz: Interference2 min
- P3 10:38OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Holding2 min
- P3 13:37OTTJarkko Ruutu: Interference2 min
- P3 13:37PITMatt Cooke: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:45OTTMike Fisher: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby6:13
xG 0.24–0.05 (82%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Conner – Letestu8:03
xG 0.28–0.11 (72%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Crosby5:21
xG 0.21–0.04 (83%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Cooke – Dupuis – Talbot6:20
xG 0.18–0.07 (70%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Michalek10:29
xG 0.33–0.07 (82%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Engelland – Goligoski11:02
xG 0.42–0.25 (62%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Orpik – Letang13:00
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Fisher – Foligno10:23
xG 0.28–0.20 (57%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Shannon4:23
xG 0.13–0.09 (61%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Regin – Winchester5:29
xG 0.12–0.16 (44%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Neil – Winchester2:21
xG 0.04–0.10 (31%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gonchar – Campoli8:33
xG 0.10–0.23 (30%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Phillips – Karlsson13:56
xG 0.29–0.48 (38%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Kuba – Carkner13:08
xG 0.22–0.49 (31%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).