Sun, Dec 26, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Montréal Canadiens 1, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 08 | 016 | 115 | 139 |
| NYI | 19 | 17 | 29 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:04NYIBlake ComeauAssists: Rob Schremp, Mark Eaton · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 18:18NYIMichael GrabnerGWGAssists: Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P3 2:02NYIPA ParenteauPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–3
- P3 4:22NYIJames WisniewskiPPAssists: Andrew MacDonald, PA Parenteau · Slap, 0.14 xG0–4
- P3 7:51MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn, Michael Cammalleri · Snap, 0.07 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:29MTLScott Gomez: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:49MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:24MTLRoman Hamrlik: Interference2 min
- P2 4:35NYIBlake Comeau: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:35MTLMaxim Lapierre: Diving2 min
- P2 9:00NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:55MTLMichael Cammalleri: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:29MTLMax Pacioretty: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P3 1:29MTLMax Pacioretty: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 3:46MTLScott Gomez: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:27NYIMilan Jurcina: Boarding2 min
- P3 18:59MTLLars Eller: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Gomez
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Darche – Lapierre3:14
xG 0.59–0.14 (81%)attempts 10–2goals 0–1
- Gomez – Gionta – Pouliot3:31
xG 0.55–0.15 (78%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Pacioretty7:56
xG 0.59–0.23 (72%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Plekanec – Kostitsyn10:21
xG 0.55–0.21 (72%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPicard – Weber9:52
xG 1.44–0.23 (86%)attempts 23–7goals 0–1
- Gill – Gorges10:31
xG 0.64–0.13 (83%)attempts 20–5goals 1–0
- Hamrlik – Spacek14:06
xG 0.54–0.40 (58%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Sim – Schremp – Comeau4:58
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 4–8goals 1–1
- Konopka – Bailey – Martin2:03
xG 0.04–0.12 (25%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Konopka – Comeau – Martin2:16
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares10:22
xG 0.20–0.50 (29%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic12:02
xG 0.50–0.31 (61%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Gervais – Hillen3:36
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
- Eaton – Wisniewski7:39
xG 0.08–0.57 (12%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).