Sun, Dec 26, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh
Washington Capitals 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 18 | 216 | 06 | 330 |
| CAR | 016 | 112 | 17 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:33WSHMathieu PerreaultAssists: Alexander Semin, Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 7:32CARJussi JokinenAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 10:26WSHDavid SteckelAssists: Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 18:02WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Mike Green · Snap, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 0:30CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Jay Harrison, Jussi Jokinen · Tip-in, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:25WSHBrooks Laich: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:58WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min
- P1 18:54CARTim Gleason: Charging5 min
- P1 18:54WSHMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:54CARTim Gleason: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 2:20WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:50WSHKarl Alzner: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:05CARJamie McBain: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Steckel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom13:04
xG 0.88–0.54 (62%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Steckel – Beagle3:29
xG 0.16–0.09 (65%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Laich – Semin – Perreault2:58
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Chimera – Gordon – Johansson2:30
xG 0.12–0.07 (63%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Green17:24
xG 0.81–0.70 (54%)attempts 16–16goals 2–1
- Alzner – Carlson13:28
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
- Erskine – Sloan8:57
xG 0.31–0.50 (38%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSamsonov – Cole – Staal10:33
xG 0.63–0.28 (70%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Ruutu – Jokinen – Skinner7:53
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 14–7goals 2–1
- Bodie – Carter – Boychuk4:02
xG 0.18–0.29 (38%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- LaRose – Dwyer – Sutter11:33
xG 0.25–0.65 (28%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – McBain2:32
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Pitkanen – McBain4:34
xG 0.26–0.09 (74%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Pitkanen – White2:36
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).