Sun, Dec 26, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Atlanta Thrashers 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 111 | 113 | 09 | 11 | 334 |
| ATL | 06 | 111 | 19 | 02 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:14TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ryan Malone, Martin St. Louis · Tip-in, 0.28 xG1–0
- P2 6:03ATLZach BogosianAssists: Anthony Stewart, Bryan Little · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 9:04TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Simon Gagne, Sean Bergenheim · Snap, 0.29 xG2–1
- P3 16:17ATLFreddy ModinAssists: Jim Slater, Ben Eager · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–2
- OT 1:13TBLVincent LecavalierPPGWGAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.39 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P2 12:24ATLJohnny Oduya: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:16ATLFreddy Modin: Holding2 min
- P2 19:34TBLRyan Malone: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:23ATLToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:47ATLToby Enstrom: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 11:06TBLSean Bergenheim: Interference2 min
- P3 18:47TBLVictor Hedman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:49ATLDustin Byfuglien: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Lecavalier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Gagne – Bergenheim10:40
xG 1.06–0.27 (80%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Moore – Ritola – Purcell9:23
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos10:41
xG 0.70–0.73 (49%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
- Hall – Thompson – Tyrell8:49
xG 0.05–0.15 (26%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOhlund – Lundin16:49
xG 1.19–0.13 (90%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Clark – Hedman15:04
xG 1.17–0.64 (65%)attempts 14–13goals 1–2
- Kubina – Jones12:43
xG 0.44–0.57 (43%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestBoulton – Thorburn – Slater5:57
xG 0.19–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Modin – Eager – Burmistrov6:38
xG 0.07–0.47 (13%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Ladd – Peverley – Bergfors12:10
xG 0.52–0.97 (35%)attempts 20–9goals 0–1
- Stewart – Little – Kane15:01
xG 0.30–1.00 (23%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Sopel – Hainsey8:38
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Oduya – Bogosian18:59
xG 0.43–0.63 (41%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien17:19
xG 0.74–1.77 (29%)attempts 20–18goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).