Sun, Dec 26, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Phoenix Coyotes 1, Dallas Stars 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 07 | 110 | 08 | 125 |
| DAL | 08 | 013 | 09 | 030 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:46PHXKyle TurrisGWGAssists: Shane Doan, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:28PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:28DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:08DALJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:13DALSteve Ott: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:43DALBrian Sutherby: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 3:28PHXDerek Morris: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 10:06PHXAdrian Aucoin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Stempniak – Hanzal12:26
xG 0.75–0.12 (86%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Doan – Belanger – Upshall11:19
xG 0.05–0.36 (13%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Korpikoski – Wolski10:35
xG 0.11–0.56 (16%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Yandle2:17
xG 0.18–0.05 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Morris – Yandle15:09
xG 0.70–0.58 (55%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
- Lepisto – Schlemko7:17
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Ott – Segal – Burish2:19
xG 0.03–0.01 (70%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn13:25
xG 0.57–0.60 (49%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal12:59
xG 0.32–0.70 (32%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Fistric13:30
xG 0.27–0.08 (78%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Robidas – Daley2:11
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Skrastins – Niskanen10:36
xG 0.26–0.20 (57%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).