Mon, Dec 27, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 2, New York Rangers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 212 | 04 | 04 | 220 |
| NYR | 218 | 218 | 316 | 752 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:44NYRMatt GilroyAssists: Chris Drury, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 7:51NYIRob SchrempAssists: James Wisniewski, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 9:43NYIPA ParenteauAssists: Matt Moulson, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
- P1 19:09NYRMarian GaborikPPAssists: Marc Staal, Derek Stepan · Slap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 12:08NYRMatt GilroyGWGAssists: Brian Boyle · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 18:21NYRBrian BoyleAssists: Michal Rozsival · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 4:14NYRBrandon DubinskyAssists: Artem Anisimov, Chris Drury · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–5
- P3 9:05NYRRuslan FedotenkoAssists: Brandon Prust, Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–6
- P3 10:34NYRDerek StepanPPAssists: Marian Gaborik, Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.22 xG2–7
Penalties (12)
- P1 11:39NYITrevor Gillies: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:39NYRBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:39NYITrevor Gillies: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:39NYRBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:14NYITravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:19NYIZenon Konopka: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:12NYRMichal Rozsival: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:54NYIPA Parenteau: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 0:22NYRArtem Anisimov: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:32NYIMatt Martin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00NYRMichael Sauer: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00NYIZenon Konopka: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Grabner – Bailey9:05
xG 0.79–0.44 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares12:55
xG 1.06–1.20 (47%)attempts 8–17goals 1–1
- Gillies – Konopka – Martin7:09
xG 0.01–1.12 (1%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
- Sim – Schremp – Comeau10:49
xG 0.12–1.57 (7%)attempts 4–16goals 1–4
Defence pairs
- Jurcina – Hillen12:17
xG 0.33–0.77 (30%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Eaton – Wisniewski16:40
xG 1.17–1.88 (38%)attempts 13–25goals 2–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic17:19
xG 0.49–2.05 (19%)attempts 11–20goals 0–3
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Stepan – Zuccarello11:59
xG 1.19–0.26 (82%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust7:49
xG 0.54–0.14 (79%)attempts 7–3goals 3–0
- Avery – Frolov – Christensen7:15
xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Drury – Dubinsky – Anisimov10:12
xG 1.28–1.21 (51%)attempts 15–9goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Eminger12:43
xG 1.51–0.31 (83%)attempts 19–5goals 1–1
- Sauer – Gilroy14:46
xG 1.49–0.42 (78%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Staal – Girardi14:52
xG 1.79–1.01 (64%)attempts 21–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).