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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 27, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver

Detroit Red Wings 4, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)

Away

Detroit Red Wings

4

Final

Overtime

Home

Colorado Avalanche

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 92% of the time.

COL winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
DET29091913430
COL21602311000349

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:29COLMatt DucheneAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Milan Hejduk · Wrist, 0.40 xG0–1
  2. P1 5:35DETJiri HudlerPPAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Nicklas Lidstrom · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
  3. P1 6:21COLTJ GaliardiAssists: David Jones, Adam Foote · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
  4. P1 12:32DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
  5. P3 14:37DETNicklas LidstromPPAssists: Jiri Hudler, Todd Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
  6. P3 17:24COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Paul Stastny, John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–3
  7. OT 3:42DETNiklas KronwallPPGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Nicklas Lidstrom · Slap, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 5:05COLTJ Galiardi: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P1 8:08DETDarren Helm: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 9:00DETJustin Abdelkader: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 12:25COLJohn-Michael Liles: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  5. P1 14:58COLDaniel Winnik: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 4:47DETJan Mursak: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 6:14COLDavid Jones: Interference2 min
  8. P2 8:38DETJonathan Ericsson: Interference2 min
  9. P2 13:27DETRuslan Salei: Slashing2 min
  10. P3 1:28DETHenrik Zetterberg: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 13:03COLRyan O'Byrne: Holding2 min · PPG
  12. P3 17:14DETNiklas Kronwall: Tripping2 min · PPG
  13. OT 3:02COLPeter Budaj: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
47% to win53% to win
← DET attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Duchene
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETCOL
30Shots on goal49
1.8Expected goals5.3
52Shot attempts79
36Faceoffs won33
6Power plays7
14Penalty minutes12
22Hits22
19Blocked shots11
6Giveaways9
11Takeaways9

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Detroit Red Wings

Forward lines

  1. Miller – Abdelkader – Mursak5:34

    xG 0.07–0.17 (28%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0

  2. Holmstrom – Zetterberg – Franzen8:51

    xG 0.19–0.40 (32%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1

  3. Bertuzzi – Filppula – Hudler11:15

    xG 0.19–0.63 (23%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0

  4. Draper – Eaves – Helm5:34

    xG 0.22–0.70 (24%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestStuart – Ericsson3:50

    xG 0.16–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0

  2. Stuart – Kronwall2:09

    xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0

  3. Salei – Kronwall5:09

    xG 0.11–0.11 (49%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0

Colorado Avalanche

Forward lines

  1. bestHejduk – Fleischmann – Duchene12:27

    xG 1.14–0.20 (85%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0

  2. Mauldin – Dupuis – McLeod3:12

    xG 0.30–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0

  3. Winnik – Galiardi – O'Reilly2:02

    xG 0.19–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

  4. Jones – Stastny – Galiardi8:31

    xG 0.25–0.09 (74%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestFoote – Wilson12:26

    xG 0.68–0.06 (91%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0

  2. Hunwick – Shattenkirk4:33

    xG 0.69–0.11 (86%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0

  3. Liles – O'Byrne11:14

    xG 0.66–0.17 (79%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 5.3 xGDET 1.8 xG
0123456P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 89/100 · #121 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.36 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 32% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +41 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 92% of the time.

COL winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).