Tue, Dec 28, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Chicago Blackhawks 1, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 17 | 08 | 011 | 126 |
| STL | 018 | 113 | 212 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:13CHIJake DowellAssists: Viktor Stalberg · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 4:39STLVladimir SobotkaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 3:08STLBrad BoyesGWGAssists: Erik Johnson, Matt D'Agostini · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 14:10STLBrad WinchesterAssists: Barret Jackman, Jay McClement · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:52CHIJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:52STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:35CHIDave Bolland: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:51CHITomas Kopecky: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:10STLCam Janssen: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:13STLAdam Cracknell: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:53CHITroy Brouwer: Elbowing2 min
- P3 4:27CHIDuncan Keith: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Bolland – Bickell – Kane2:13
xG 0.02–0.02 (49%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Bolland – Bickell – Skille4:11
xG 0.02–0.08 (17%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hossa – Kopecky – Stalberg7:09
xG 0.46–0.57 (45%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Dowell – Skille – Scott2:04
xG 0.03–0.29 (10%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCullimore – Boynton5:04
xG 0.14–0.04 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Campbell – Keith2:50
xG 0.12–0.07 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Boynton – Keith4:05
xG 0.27–0.41 (40%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Winchester – McClement10:36
xG 1.08–0.30 (78%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Backes – Sobotka – D'Agostini11:53
xG 0.82–0.24 (77%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Janssen – Porter – Cracknell2:23
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Crombeen – Berglund11:11
xG 0.36–0.53 (41%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Johnson9:37
xG 1.06–0.20 (84%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Jackman – Pietrangelo12:10
xG 0.99–0.73 (58%)attempts 16–16goals 2–0
- Jackman – Polak2:27
xG 0.08–0.12 (42%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).