Tue, Dec 28, 2010·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Anaheim Ducks 3, Phoenix Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 39 | 09 | 06 | 324 |
| PHX | 09 | 114 | 09 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:38ANALuca SbisaAssists: Saku Koivu · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 8:16ANAJoffrey LupulGWGAssists: Brandon McMillan, Andreas Lilja · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P1 15:20ANACorey PerryUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 15:39PHXShane DoanPPAssists: Ray Whitney, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:27PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:27ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:57ANACorey Perry: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 7:01PHXDerek Morris: Interference2 min
- P2 13:58ANAMatt Beleskey: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:02ANAAndy Sutton: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:28PHXShane Doan: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:15ANATodd Marchant: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:38ANAAndy Sutton: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:06ANATodd Marchant: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:08PHXMartin Hanzal: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Getzlaf – Perry – Beleskey6:44
xG 0.14–0.15 (47%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Perry – Ryan – Beleskey3:22
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Marchant – Lupul – McMillan3:01
xG 0.11–0.12 (46%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Marchant – Parros – Chipchura4:55
xG 0.07–0.09 (44%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Fowler2:42
xG 0.32–0.05 (86%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sutton – Sbisa9:56
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 2–0
- Lilja – Fowler13:15
xG 0.39–0.54 (42%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Stempniak – Hanzal11:22
xG 0.56–0.29 (66%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Doan – Upshall – Turris2:37
xG 0.25–0.16 (62%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Doan – Belanger – Boedker3:43
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Doan – Belanger – Upshall5:49
xG 0.11–0.12 (46%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Jovanovski15:29
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Lepisto – Ekman-Larsson8:42
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Morris – Yandle15:49
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).