Tue, Dec 28, 2010·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Vancouver Canucks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 08 | 117 | 112 | 237 |
| VAN | 122 | 314 | 213 | 649 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:46VANManny MalhotraAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Raffi Torres · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 0:56VANRyan KeslerAssists: Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 2:30VANDaniel SedinGWGAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Henrik Sedin · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 3:29PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Ville Leino · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 5:21VANRyan KeslerPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Christian Ehrhoff · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 0:51VANJannik HansenAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–5
- P3 7:47VANJeff TambelliniAssists: Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–6
- P3 13:14PHIJeff CarterPPAssists: Daniel Brière, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–6
Penalties (14)
- P1 9:45VANManny Malhotra: Interference2 min
- P1 12:40VANJannik Hansen: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:40PHIDarroll Powe: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:22PHIBraydon Coburn: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:48PHISean O'Donnell: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:48VANAaron Volpatti: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:53PHISean O'Donnell: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:53VANAaron Volpatti: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:25PHIKimmo Timonen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:30VANAaron Volpatti: Charging2 min
- P3 9:56VANKevin Bieksa: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:29VANKeith Ballard: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 12:29VANTanner Glass: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:29PHIJody Shelley: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestShelley – Betts – Powe4:38
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino10:18
xG 0.67–0.55 (55%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Richards – Giroux – Nodl10:37
xG 0.31–0.39 (44%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Zherdev – Carter – van Riemsdyk11:03
xG 0.31–0.67 (32%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestO'Donnell – Bartulis11:40
xG 0.64–0.47 (58%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
- Carle – Bartulis2:30
xG 0.16–0.07 (71%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Carle – Meszaros10:39
xG 0.41–0.57 (42%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Tambellini – Hansen9:53
xG 0.75–0.28 (73%)attempts 16–5goals 2–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows10:59
xG 0.56–0.26 (68%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Bolduc – Glass – Volpatti6:36
xG 0.30–0.21 (58%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Samuelsson – Torres10:00
xG 0.49–0.59 (45%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Edler13:36
xG 0.83–0.24 (77%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Alberts – Ballard12:15
xG 0.64–0.52 (55%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Bieksa12:32
xG 0.64–0.65 (50%)attempts 16–9goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).