Wed, Dec 29, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, New York Islanders 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 012 | 112 | 09 | 05 | 2 | 138 |
| NYI | 010 | 17 | 08 | 01 | 3 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:34NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.42 xG0–1
- P2 16:33PITChris ConnerAssists: Tyler Kennedy · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NYI Rob Schremp scored
- 2. PIT Kris Letang scored
- 3. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 5. NYI John Tavares stopped
- 6. PIT Evgeni Malkin scored
- 7. NYI PA Parenteau scored
- 8. PIT Mark Letestu stopped
Penalties (14)
- P1 9:07NYIZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:07PITCraig Adams: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:22PITChris Kunitz: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:22NYIPA Parenteau: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:12PITPascal Dupuis: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:50NYIJon Sim: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:50PITBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:01NYIMatt Martin: Boarding2 min
- P3 0:14PITZbynek Michalek: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:22PITKris Letang: Interference2 min
- OT 3:46NYIJosh Bailey: Too many men on the ice2 min
- OT 4:49NYIFrans Nielsen: Roughing2 min
- OT 4:49PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- OT 5:00NYIZenon Konopka: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAsham – Adams – Rupp4:15
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Cooke – Dupuis – Talbot2:42
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Crosby5:31
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Cooke – Talbot – Malkin4:55
xG 0.14–0.12 (54%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Letang12:20
xG 0.61–0.34 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Engelland – Goligoski12:54
xG 0.33–0.45 (43%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Martin – Michalek13:16
xG 0.76–1.05 (42%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Grabner – Bailey11:33
xG 1.31–0.29 (82%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares11:35
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Gillies – Konopka – Martin3:41
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Sim – Schremp – Comeau7:53
xG 0.14–0.74 (16%)attempts 1–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEaton – Jurcina15:13
xG 0.54–0.25 (68%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic15:59
xG 0.92–0.70 (57%)attempts 11–21goals 1–1
- Gervais – Hillen11:06
xG 0.43–0.79 (36%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).