Wed, Dec 29, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
San Jose Sharks 3, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 19 | 210 | 013 | 332 |
| MIN | 15 | 111 | 38 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:08MINKyle BrodziakPPAssists: Martin Havlat, Pierre-Marc Bouchard · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 11:49SJSJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Ryane Clowe, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 2:57SJSDevin SetoguchiAssists: Ryane Clowe, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 12:27MINMikko KoivuAssists: Andrew Brunette, Antti Miettinen · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 15:01SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 5:14MINChuck KobasewAssists: Nick Schultz, John Madden · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–3
- P3 9:15MINBrent BurnsGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–4
- P3 10:35MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Martin Havlat, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:12SJSJoe Thornton: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:45SJSJamie McGinn: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:09MINBrent Burns: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 10:57MINMatt Cullen: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:39SJSJason Demers: Holding2 min
- P2 14:31MINMartin Havlat: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00SJSNiclas Wallin: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 15:06MINAndrew Brunette: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Madden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestClowe – Setoguchi – Couture10:41
xG 0.90–0.71 (56%)attempts 18–10goals 1–2
- Mayers – Nichol – Mashinter2:23
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Marleau – McGinn – Mashinter4:09
xG 0.09–0.08 (50%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Thornton – Marleau – Heatley2:06
xG 0.00–0.02 (16%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Murray13:05
xG 0.90–0.21 (81%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Boyle – Vlasic2:51
xG 0.06–0.17 (26%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Wallin – Vlasic10:48
xG 0.08–0.56 (12%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHavlat – Bouchard – Brodziak8:10
xG 0.64–0.02 (96%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Madden – Kobasew – Nystrom2:27
xG 0.35–0.03 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Brunette – Miettinen – Koivu11:02
xG 0.64–0.41 (61%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Cullen – Kobasew – Staubitz2:00
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Barker7:19
xG 0.69–0.26 (73%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Burns – Scandella13:13
xG 0.37–0.13 (75%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Schultz – Zanon10:43
xG 0.49–0.73 (40%)attempts 8–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).