Wed, Dec 29, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Detroit Red Wings 7, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 14 | 215 | 47 | 726 |
| DAL | 012 | 314 | 05 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:36DETJiri HudlerPPAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Nicklas Lidstrom · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 5:39DALBrad RichardsAssists: Loui Eriksson, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 6:24DALMark FistricAssists: Brenden Morrow, Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 6:53DALJamie BennAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 8:56DETNicklas LidstromAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Todd Bertuzzi · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 17:38DETPatrick EavesPPAssists: Johan Franzen, Brian Rafalski · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 5:29DETBrad StuartGWGAssists: Jiri Hudler, Drew Miller · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 13:23DETKris DraperAssists: Patrick Eaves, Darren Helm · Slap, 0.06 xG5–3
- P3 14:07DETPatrick EavesAssists: Johan Franzen, Henrik Zetterberg · Tip-in, 0.20 xG6–3
- P3 17:46DETPatrick EavesENAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Jimmy Howard · Wrist, 0.43 xG7–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:24DALSteve Ott: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 4:29DETDrew Miller: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:53DETJohan Franzen: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:39DALSteve Ott: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:17DETBrian Rafalski: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:02DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P3 17:02DALBrenden Morrow: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Filppula – Hudler11:41
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Miller – Abdelkader – Mursak7:05
xG 0.71–0.51 (58%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Draper – Eaves – Helm9:03
xG 0.59–0.43 (58%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
- Holmstrom – Zetterberg – Franzen11:54
xG 0.14–0.27 (33%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – Stuart13:19
xG 1.08–0.19 (85%)attempts 16–4goals 2–1
- Stuart – Ericsson2:46
xG 0.24–0.02 (91%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Rafalski – Ericsson12:13
xG 0.19–0.66 (22%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBarch – Petersen – Wandell3:31
xG 0.39–0.05 (88%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn9:36
xG 0.77–0.56 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 2–1
- Ott – Burish – Neal2:44
xG 0.16–0.04 (80%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Wandell3:36
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkrastins – Fistric11:30
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Woywitka – Daley14:03
xG 1.16–0.97 (54%)attempts 12–15goals 2–1
- Robidas – Woywitka3:12
xG 0.08–0.17 (31%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).