Thu, Dec 30, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Montréal Canadiens 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 05 | 015 | 128 |
| TBL | 06 | 28 | 29 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:58MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 2:48TBLMartin St. LouisPPAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 12:31TBLPavel KubinaGWGAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 1:46TBLSteven StamkosUnassisted · Backhand, 0.36 xG1–3
- P3 4:40TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ryan Malone, Victor Hedman · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:35TBLMattias Ohlund: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:21MTLRoman Hamrlik: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 7:28TBLBrett Clark: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:54MTLBenoit Pouliot: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:50MTLMathieu Darche: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 2:35MTLMaxim Lapierre: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:17MTLLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:46TBLSimon Gagne: Interference2 min
- P3 1:46MTLRoman Hamrlik: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 9:53TBLRyan Malone: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:38TBLRyan Malone: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 18:13MTLRoman Hamrlik: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Plekanec – Kostitsyn11:06
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Halpern – Moen – Lapierre7:23
xG 0.34–0.44 (43%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Darche – Pouliot – Eller6:37
xG 0.14–0.27 (35%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Pacioretty9:05
xG 0.11–0.39 (23%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Spacek3:56
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Gill – Subban10:23
xG 0.13–0.13 (51%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Subban4:39
xG 0.07–0.09 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Malone – Stamkos7:25
xG 0.52–0.16 (76%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
- Hall – Thompson – Tyrell7:11
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Hall – Moore – Purcell2:00
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Bergenheim8:42
xG 0.04–0.31 (11%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Hedman9:16
xG 0.54–0.07 (89%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Kubina – Jones9:12
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Kubina – Smaby2:33
xG 0.09–0.30 (23%)attempts 1–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).