Thu, Dec 30, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Colorado Avalanche 4, Edmonton Oilers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 311 | 06 | 09 | 01 | 1 | 427 |
| EDM | 08 | 110 | 213 | 04 | 0 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:22COLTJ GaliardiAssists: Paul Stastny, Ryan Wilson · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 12:01COLPaul StastnyAssists: David Jones, TJ Galiardi · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 14:49COLTomas FleischmannAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 9:30EDMTaylor HallAssists: Sam Gagner, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 1:54EDMAles HemskyAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 4:53EDMAndrew CoglianoAssists: Ales Hemsky, Dustin Penner · Snap, 0.36 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. EDM Jordan Eberle stopped
- 2. COL Milan Hejduk scored
- 3. EDM Ales Hemsky stopped
- 4. COL Matt Duchene stopped
- 5. EDM Taylor Hall stopped
Penalties (6)
- P2 2:18EDMSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:40COLGreg Mauldin: Holding2 min
- P2 16:55COLPaul Stastny: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:29COLRyan O'Byrne: Cross checking2 min
- OT 0:33EDMLadislav Smid: Holding2 min
- OT 3:20COLDaniel Winnik: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Cogliano
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Fleischmann – Duchene12:03
xG 1.30–0.46 (74%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Jones – Stastny – Galiardi13:27
xG 1.07–0.38 (74%)attempts 17–9goals 2–1
- Porter – Winnik – O'Reilly11:19
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – O'Byrne16:14
xG 1.32–0.85 (61%)attempts 25–19goals 2–2
- Foote – Wilson16:25
xG 1.03–0.70 (60%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Hunwick – Shattenkirk11:55
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Penner – Cogliano13:20
xG 0.74–0.55 (57%)attempts 17–13goals 2–1
- Brule – O'Marra – Paajarvi8:13
xG 0.16–0.29 (36%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Fraser – Stortini – Jones8:04
xG 0.04–0.23 (14%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Gagner – Eberle – Hall13:27
xG 0.66–1.64 (29%)attempts 15–19goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Smid – Peckham3:07
xG 0.17–0.21 (45%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Foster – Smid11:42
xG 0.42–0.59 (41%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Strudwick – Petry11:17
xG 0.39–0.65 (37%)attempts 4–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).