Fri, Dec 31, 2010·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Montréal Canadiens 3, Florida Panthers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 09 | 221 | 016 | 12 | 348 |
| FLA | 06 | 210 | 06 | 00 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:28FLAStephen WeissAssists: Chris Higgins, Dennis Wideman · Tip-in, 0.25 xG0–1
- P2 2:13FLADmitry KulikovAssists: Mike Santorelli, David Booth · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 10:59MTLJames WisniewskiPPAssists: Roman Hamrlik, Scott Gomez · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 12:54MTLBrian GiontaPPAssists: Scott Gomez, James Wisniewski · Tip-in, 0.31 xG2–2
- OT 3:41MTLJames WisniewskiGWGAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:38MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:39FLARostislav Olesz: Holding2 min
- P1 15:32MTLP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
- P1 17:42MTLAlex Auld: Delaying game2 min
- P2 9:05FLARadek Dvorak: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:05FLAMike Santorelli: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 15:59MTLP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P2 17:16MTLJaroslav Spacek: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 18:05FLAEvgenii Dadonov: Interference2 min
- P3 9:53MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Reasoner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDarche – Pouliot – Eller8:28
xG 0.36–0.04 (91%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Halpern – Moen – Pyatt3:41
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Plekanec – Kostitsyn6:54
xG 0.35–0.37 (49%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Plekanec – Pyatt2:38
xG 0.02–0.09 (17%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Subban12:33
xG 0.48–0.14 (77%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Spacek – Weber10:50
xG 0.28–0.21 (58%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Hamrlik – Wisniewski12:04
xG 0.58–0.73 (45%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Higgins – Frolik9:09
xG 0.54–0.29 (65%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Booth – Santorelli – Dadonov9:44
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Bernier – Olesz – Matthias6:40
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Stillman – Dvorak – Reasoner10:15
xG 0.16–0.55 (22%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Wideman13:43
xG 0.55–0.43 (56%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Weaver – Garrison14:04
xG 0.51–0.55 (48%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
- McCabe – Kulikov10:40
xG 0.08–0.41 (16%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).