Fri, Dec 31, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
New York Islanders 4, Detroit Red Wings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 24 | 111 | 06 | 12 | 423 |
| DET | 112 | 113 | 114 | 02 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:52DETJohan FranzenAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Tomas Holmstrom · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 13:22NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Andrew MacDonald, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 19:57NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Bruno Gervais, Zenon Konopka · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 15:13NYIJesse JoensuuAssists: Milan Jurcina, Matt Martin · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 19:51DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Darren Helm, Nicklas Lidstrom · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 10:18DETTomas TatarAssists: Darren Helm, Brian Rafalski · Deflected, 0.22 xG3–3
- OT 3:57NYIPA ParenteauPPGWGAssists: John Tavares, Andrew MacDonald · Snap, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:33NYIMatt Moulson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 6:52NYIMilan Jurcina: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:17DETTodd Bertuzzi: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 9:55NYIJon Sim: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 3:12NYIAndrew MacDonald: Tripping2 min
- OT 0:58NYIBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:24DETHenrik Zetterberg: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Helm won the faceoff against Schremp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestSim – Schremp – Comeau11:05
xG 0.64–0.34 (65%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares11:13
xG 0.29–0.43 (40%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Konopka – Joensuu – Martin7:24
xG 0.08–0.39 (17%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Grabner – Bailey9:20
xG 0.15–0.47 (24%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEaton – Jurcina15:05
xG 0.65–0.49 (57%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
- Reese – MacDonald2:32
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gervais – MacDonald2:23
xG 0.12–0.06 (65%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Abdelkader – Mursak9:36
xG 0.37–0.11 (78%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Draper – Helm – Tatar10:55
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Zetterberg – Franzen12:27
xG 0.54–0.35 (61%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Filppula – Hudler11:06
xG 0.21–0.37 (36%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – Stuart12:29
xG 0.79–0.34 (70%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Salei – Ericsson3:20
xG 0.27–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Stuart – Ericsson2:31
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).