Fri, Dec 31, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Phoenix Coyotes 3, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 014 | 07 | 312 | 333 |
| STL | 16 | 211 | 15 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:08STLBrad BoyesAssists: Alexander Steen, Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 7:23STLErik JohnsonSHAssists: David Backes, Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 18:31STLAlex PietrangeloPPAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo, Patrik Berglund · Snap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 3:05STLAlexander SteenGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–4
- P3 6:20PHXShane DoanAssists: Eric Belanger, Scottie Upshall · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–4
- P3 18:33PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Keith Yandle, Derek Morris · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 19:39PHXShane DoanAssists: Adrian Aucoin, Scottie Upshall · Deflected, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 1:42PHXAdrian Aucoin: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:11STLBrad Winchester: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:34STLMatt D'Agostini: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 18:04PHXRay Whitney: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:34STLVladimir Sobotka: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Sobotka
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Stempniak – Turris3:29
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Korpikoski – Turris8:46
xG 0.62–0.52 (54%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Doan – Belanger – Upshall10:19
xG 0.80–0.72 (53%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal11:28
xG 0.31–0.26 (55%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Yandle19:17
xG 1.41–0.84 (63%)attempts 36–17goals 2–0
- Lepisto – Ekman-Larsson10:01
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Aucoin – Jovanovski16:46
xG 0.43–0.60 (42%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – McClement – Steen7:05
xG 1.12–0.16 (88%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Janssen – Porter – Cracknell6:52
xG 0.06–0.03 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Winchester – Crombeen – Berglund5:27
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Steen – Crombeen – Berglund3:07
xG 0.04–0.16 (19%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Pietrangelo14:33
xG 0.74–0.26 (74%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Brewer – Polak15:18
xG 1.09–1.09 (50%)attempts 15–24goals 1–1
- Colaiacovo – Johnson13:47
xG 0.07–0.31 (19%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).