Fri, Dec 31, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vancouver Canucks 4, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 28 | 27 | 07 | 422 |
| DAL | 08 | 018 | 119 | 145 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:11VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 17:58VANRaffi TorresGWGAssists: Jannik Hansen, Kevin Bieksa · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 9:52VANHenrik SedinPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Daniel Sedin · Snap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 16:50VANKevin BieksaPPAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Manny Malhotra · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–0
- P3 3:21DALBrenden MorrowPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 16:31DALStephane Robidas: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:31VANChristian Ehrhoff: Interference2 min
- P2 9:40DALMike Ribeiro: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:24DALAdam Burish: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:02VANAlexandre Burrows: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:07DALBrandon Segal: Abuse of officials2 min · PPG
- P3 1:39VANRyan Kesler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:58VANChristian Ehrhoff: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:44DALStephane Robidas: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:53VANAlexandre Bolduc: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:53VANTanner Glass: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:53DALSteve Ott: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:53DALJeff Woywitka: Holding2 min
- P3 18:53DALJeff Woywitka: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Burish won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Tambellini – Hansen8:51
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Sedin – Sedin2:40
xG 0.03–0.12 (19%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Bolduc – Glass – Volpatti5:13
xG 0.03–0.15 (18%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows7:23
xG 0.03–0.66 (5%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hamhuis – Bieksa15:58
xG 0.60–0.65 (48%)attempts 16–20goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Edler13:38
xG 0.06–0.62 (8%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Alberts – Ballard12:28
xG 0.06–0.87 (7%)attempts 5–22goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Eriksson – Neal12:45
xG 0.89–0.04 (95%)attempts 23–4goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn9:59
xG 0.83–0.02 (97%)attempts 20–3goals 0–0
- Petersen – Segal – Wandell4:26
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Ott – Burish – Wandell2:33
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWoywitka – Daley15:06
xG 0.96–0.12 (89%)attempts 26–6goals 0–0
- Robidas – Grossmann14:16
xG 0.43–0.13 (76%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Skrastins – Fistric10:13
xG 0.22–0.34 (40%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).