Sat, Jan 1, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
New Jersey Devils 3, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 19 | 112 | 17 | 328 |
| CAR | 411 | 15 | 19 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:48CARTuomo RuutuPPAssists: Joe Corvo · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 4:28CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Tim Gleason, Chad LaRose · Backhand, 0.21 xG0–2
- P1 8:00CARSergei SamsonovPPAssists: Joe Corvo, Jamie McBain · Backhand, 0.31 xG0–3
- P1 13:42CARZac DalpeGWGAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Jamie McBain · Snap, 0.09 xG0–4
- P1 16:52NJDRod PelleyAssists: Matthew Corrente, Anssi Salmela · Snap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P2 0:49NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Patrik Elias, Anton Volchenkov · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–4
- P2 8:42CARSergei SamsonovPPAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.68 xG2–5
- P3 2:36NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Matthew Corrente · Slap, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 17:34CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Chad LaRose, Tuomo Ruutu · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:29NJDMattias Tedenby: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:12NJDMark Fayne: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:17NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Interference2 min
- P2 7:34NJDAnssi Salmela: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:59NJDTravis Zajac: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:49CARJay Harrison: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:49NJDDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:49CARJay Harrison: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:26NJDMatthew Corrente: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Arnott won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Langenbrunner – Elias12:11
xG 0.42–0.06 (88%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Zubrus – Kovalchuk – Tedenby2:28
xG 0.02–0.02 (52%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Palmieri11:05
xG 0.27–0.32 (46%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Clarkson – Sestito – Pelley9:20
xG 0.17–0.31 (36%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Greene14:47
xG 0.60–0.15 (80%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Tallinder – Fayne16:06
xG 0.22–0.13 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Corrente – Salmela15:45
xG 0.31–0.64 (33%)attempts 13–12goals 2–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – LaRose – Skinner10:56
xG 0.79–0.08 (91%)attempts 14–3goals 2–0
- Bodie – Carter – Dalpe5:55
xG 0.09–0.06 (59%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- LaRose – Dwyer – Sutter2:22
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
- Samsonov – Cole – Staal11:39
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 2–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – McBain5:52
xG 0.36–0.08 (82%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Gleason – White4:11
xG 0.23–0.12 (67%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Carson – McBain5:09
xG 0.14–0.04 (77%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).