Sun, Jan 2, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Atlanta Thrashers 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 15 | 214 | 04 | 15 | 428 |
| MTL | 116 | 117 | 116 | 01 | 350 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:20ATLRich PeverleyAssists: Toby Enstrom, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 17:56MTLTomas PlekanecPPAssists: James Wisniewski, Yannick Weber · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 5:42ATLEvander KaneAssists: Patrice Cormier, Chris Thorburn · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 10:25MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Roman Hamrlik, Scott Gomez · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 19:44ATLAndrew LaddAssists: Toby Enstrom, Niclas Bergfors · Wrist, 0.39 xG3–2
- P3 15:13MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Max Pacioretty, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 3:43ATLDustin ByfuglienPPGWGAssists: Toby Enstrom, Evander Kane · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:55MTLScott Gomez: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:36ATLBrent Sopel: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 2:42ATLNik Antropov: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:00ATLRon Hainsey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- OT 1:51MTLP.K. Subban: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestModin – Stewart – Peverley11:34
xG 0.93–0.58 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Antropov – Ladd – Little5:48
xG 0.08–0.09 (49%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Cormier – Kane6:27
xG 0.96–1.11 (46%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Boulton – Antropov – Burmistrov6:14
xG 0.01–0.19 (4%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Enstrom – Bogosian2:43
xG 0.10–0.10 (51%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien18:40
xG 0.98–1.41 (41%)attempts 17–22goals 2–0
- Oduya – Bogosian17:01
xG 1.33–2.33 (36%)attempts 16–22goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Gionta – Pacioretty14:57
xG 3.02–0.73 (81%)attempts 33–10goals 1–0
- Darche – Pouliot – Desharnais12:11
xG 0.80–0.50 (61%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Halpern – Moen – Pyatt6:21
xG 0.58–0.31 (65%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Plekanec – Kostitsyn14:48
xG 0.65–0.68 (49%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpacek – Weber15:28
xG 1.82–0.27 (87%)attempts 24–10goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Wisniewski16:30
xG 1.92–0.67 (74%)attempts 28–11goals 1–1
- Gill – Subban15:40
xG 1.16–0.69 (63%)attempts 22–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).