Sun, Jan 2, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Detroit Red Wings 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 08 | 319 | 05 | 332 |
| DET | 09 | 011 | 27 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:51PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Andreas Nodl, Mike Richards · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 5:32PHIDaniel CarcilloAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Matt Carle · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 14:24PHIScott HartnellGWGAssists: Sean O'Donnell, Daniel Brière · Snap, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 0:51DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Johan Franzen · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 12:28DETHenrik ZetterbergPPAssists: Tomas Holmstrom, Nicklas Lidstrom · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:33PHIDaniel Brière: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:45PHIClaude Giroux: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:19DETJohan Franzen: Holding2 min
- P3 9:40DETChris Osgood: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P3 11:11PHIVille Leino: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Nodl – van Riemsdyk13:07
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Carter – Giroux – Powe13:19
xG 0.46–0.28 (62%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino12:35
xG 0.46–0.29 (61%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Shelley – Betts – Carcillo5:54
xG 0.25–0.17 (59%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Meszaros15:31
xG 0.82–0.46 (64%)attempts 16–13goals 2–1
- Timonen – Coburn17:29
xG 0.55–0.29 (65%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Bartulis12:17
xG 0.25–0.46 (35%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHolmstrom – Zetterberg – Franzen12:45
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Filppula – Hudler – Franzen2:33
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Draper – Helm – Tatar7:29
xG 0.28–0.17 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Miller – Abdelkader – Mursak4:40
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – Rafalski5:01
xG 0.21–0.04 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Lidstrom – Stuart10:43
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Rafalski – Ericsson14:51
xG 0.46–0.50 (48%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).