Sun, Jan 2, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Phoenix Coyotes 5, Minnesota Wild 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 115 | 010 | 419 | 00 | 544 |
| MIN | 17 | 29 | 212 | 11 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:24PHXRay WhitneyAssists: Radim Vrbata, Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 19:55MINAndrew BrunetteAssists: Mikko Koivu, Antti Miettinen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 9:55MINAndrew BrunettePPAssists: Brent Burns, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–2
- P2 12:13MINNick SchultzAssists: John Madden, Eric Nystrom · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 4:44PHXScottie UpshallAssists: Shane Doan, Eric Belanger · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 4:57PHXKeith YandleAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 11:14MINBrent BurnsAssists: Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 14:13PHXEd JovanovskiAssists: Keith Yandle, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–4
- P3 17:05PHXRay WhitneyAssists: Kyle Turris, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.26 xG5–4
- P3 19:34MINPierre-Marc BouchardAssists: Andrew Brunette, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–5
- OT 0:46MINCam BarkerGWGAssists: Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.05 xG5–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:34MINCam Barker: Holding2 min
- P2 8:02MINCam Barker: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:02PHXLauri Korpikoski: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:16PHXKeith Yandle: Holding2 min
- P2 14:40MINCal Clutterbuck: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Vrbata – Hanzal7:19
xG 0.86–0.15 (85%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Doan – Belanger – Upshall10:34
xG 0.54–0.24 (69%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Fiddler – Stempniak3:56
xG 0.27–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Turris2:50
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Yandle18:00
xG 1.24–0.30 (81%)attempts 26–13goals 2–1
- Lepisto – Schlemko7:35
xG 0.36–0.18 (66%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Schlemko6:03
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBrunette – Miettinen – Koivu9:53
xG 0.62–0.26 (71%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Brunette – Koivu – Kobasew3:09
xG 0.15–0.17 (46%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Cullen – Kobasew – O'Sullivan6:52
xG 0.26–0.43 (38%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Madden – Nystrom – Clutterbuck9:35
xG 0.16–0.40 (28%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Zanon – Stoner14:28
xG 0.67–0.94 (41%)attempts 12–20goals 1–1
- Schultz – Burns18:21
xG 0.49–0.87 (36%)attempts 15–19goals 2–2
- Barker – Spurgeon14:07
xG 0.30–0.85 (26%)attempts 13–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).